Bart and Lisa Are Playing a Coin-Tossing Game Where Each

question 5

Multiple Choice

Bart and Lisa are playing a coin-tossing game where each player tosses a fair coin 20 times consecutively. The winner of the game is the player who tosses the most consecutive tails. Bart decides to go first and tosses tails five times in a row. Marge and Homer are observing the game and make the following observations before Bart attempts the sixth toss: Marge: "The probability of Bart tossing tails has to be greater than 75% because he is on a roll!"
Homer: "No, Marge, the probability of Bart tossing tails has to be less than 25% because he hasn't tossed heads in the last five tosses and he is due to toss heads!"
A behavioral economist would conclude that Marge's statement is an example of the __________, and Homer's statement is an example of the ___________.

• A) continuum fallacy; hot-hand fallacy
• B) hot-hand fallacy; broken-window fallacy
• C) gambler's fallacy; hot-hand fallacy
• D) hot-hand fallacy; gambler's fallacy
• E) behavior fallacy; broken-window fallacy

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Definitions:

Novel Object

An new or unfamiliar object that has not been previously encountered by an observer, often used in studies to test curiosity or learning.

Genetic Limit

The maximum potential for development that an individual's genetic makeup allows, considering external factors do not limit growth.

Reaction Range

The variability in the expression of inherited traits as they are influenced by environmental factors.

Environmental Limits

Constraints or boundaries set by the surrounding environment that limit the actions, growth, or survival of an organism or system.