The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 88

Multiple Choice

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?

• A) .8
• B) .7
• C) .56
• D) .2
• E) .14

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Definitions:

Leftover Inventory

Refers to items that remain unsold at the end of a sales period, often leading to discounted selling or storage.

Season

A period of the year characterized by specific weather conditions, events, or business activities, which can affect demand and supply dynamics in various markets.

Standard Deviation

A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values, indicating how much the values deviate from the mean of the set.

Forecast Error

The difference between the actual outcomes and the predictions made by forecasting models.