General Grant Must Send Orders to General Butler

question 20

Essay

General Grant must send orders to General Butler. Carrier pigeons are the medium of choice. A single pigeon has a .7 probability of arriving at the proper destination in a timely fashion. How many pigeons, each carrying an identical set of orders, must Grant send in order for him to have 98% confidence that the orders reached General Butler?

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Definitions:

Inference Forms

Inference forms refer to the logical structures that showcase how conclusions are derived from premises.

MP

Abbreviation for Modus Ponens, a form of argument where if 'P implies Q' and 'P' is asserted to be true, then 'Q' must be true.

Inference Forms

Patterns or structures of logical reasoning that derive conclusions from premises based on rules.

MP

An abbreviation for Modus Ponens, a form of argument in logic where if a conditional statement ("if P, then Q") is accepted, and the antecedent P holds, then the consequent Q logically must also hold.