A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 63

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and he is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years.
"First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."
Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values. Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Flat Bones

Bones with a thin, flattened shape, primarily involved in protection of vital organs and providing broad surfaces for muscle attachment.

Irregular Bones

Bones that do not fall into the standard shape categories (long, short, flat), having complex shapes that provide protection, support, and leverage, such as the vertebrae.

Yellow Marrow

Connective tissue filling the cavities of bones; consists primarily of reticular fibers and fat cells; replaces red marrow in long bones and the skull.

Adipose Tissue

A type of body tissue containing stored fat that serves as a source of energy, provides insulation and protection to organs.