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A Company Is Considering Producing Some New Gameboy Electronic Games

question 113

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A company is considering producing some new Gameboy electronic games.Based on past records, management believes that there is a 70 percent chance that each of these will be successful and a 30 percent chance of failure.Market research may be used to revise these probabilities.In the past, the successful products were predicted to be successful based on market research 90 percent of the time.However, for products that failed, the market research predicted these would be successes 20 percent of the time.If market research is performed for a new product, what is the probability that the results indicate a successful market for the product and the product actually is successful?


Definitions:

Salvage Value

The anticipated market price of an asset upon the conclusion of its effective service life.

Marginal Tax Rate

The tax rate applied to the last dollar of income, which can be used to measure the impact of additional income or deductions on overall taxes due.

Incremental After-Tax Net Cash Flows

The additional cash flows a business expects to generate after accounting for taxes, resulting from a new project or investment.

Depreciation

The systematic allocation of the cost of a tangible asset over its useful life, reflecting the decrease in the asset's value over time.

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