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A Principle of Forecasting Is That Uncertainty Cannot Be Tolerated

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A principle of forecasting is that uncertainty cannot be tolerated.


Definitions:

Hypothesis

A proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.

Pooled Standard Error

A method to estimate the standard error across two or more samples by combining the individual standard deviations into a single measure, often used in t-tests.

Confidence Interval

A variety of values obtained from sample data that probably encompasses the value of an unspecified population characteristic.

Margin of Error

An expression of the amount of random sampling error in a survey’s results.

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