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TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 22

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2010 to 2012.The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2010
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise
-Referring to Table 16-14,in testing the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (-0.083) ,the results were a t-statistic of -0.66 and an associated p-value of 0.530.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Definitions:

Test Statistic

A numerical quantity calculated from a sample of data, used in statistical testing to make decisions about a population parameter.

P-value

The probability of achieving outcomes as significant as, or more significant than, the ones observed, under the premise that the null hypothesis is valid.

Test Statistic

A numerical value calculated from sample data during a hypothesis test, used to assess the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis.

Population Proportions

The fraction or percentage of the population that possesses a particular property.