TABLE 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time-Series Data for U.S.retail Sales

question 105

Short Answer

TABLE 16-13
Given below is the monthly time-series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year. The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model: Quadratic trend model: Exponential trend model: First-order autoregressive: Second-order autoregressive: Third-order autoregressive: Below is the residual plot of the various models:
-Referring to Table 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the 12^th month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.25 if the exponentially smooth value for the 10^th and 11^th month are 9,477.7776 and 9,411.8332,respectively?

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Definitions:

Price Elasticity

A measure of the sensitivity of quantity demanded or supplied to a change in price, indicating how a product's demand or supply reacts to price changes.

Income Elasticity

A measure of how much the demand for a good is affected by changes in consumers' income.

Excise Tax

A tax levied on specific goods or services, such as tobacco or gasoline, typically imposed at the manufacturing or retail level.

Consumer Surplus

The separation between the theoretical price consumers are willing to pay for a good or service and the practical price they pay.