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The Time-Series Model Yt = Tt * Ct *St T~1\tilde { T} _ { 1}

question 25

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The time-series model yt = Tt * Ct *St * Rt is used for forecasting,where Tt,Ct,St,and Rt are respectively the trend,cyclical,seasonal,and random variation components of the time series,and yt is the value of the time series at time t.The following estimates are obtained: T~1\tilde { T} _ { 1} = 120, C~t\tilde { C } _ { t } = 1.02, S~t\tilde { S } _ { t } = 0.95,and R^2\hat { R } _ { 2 } = 0.90.The model will produce a forecast of:

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