Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 161

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data.First,for periods 4 through 11,develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F?)of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3.Second,calculate the 3-period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11.Third,calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11,using weights of .50,.30,and .20.Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD)and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE)for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 45 \\2 & 48 \\3 & 42 \\4 & 48 \\5 & 49 \\6 & 54 \\7 & 47 \\8 & 50 \\9 & 46 \\10 & 47 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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