Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data $\mathrm { F } _ { 3 }$

question 57

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data.First,for periods 4 through 11,develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 ( $\mathrm { F } _ { 3 }$ )of 79.0 and an alpha of 0.2.Second,calculate the 3-period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11.Third,calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11,using weights of .70,.20,and .10.Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD)and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE)for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 75 \\2 & 79 \\3 & 83 \\4 & 80 \\5 & 87 \\6 & 81 \\7 & 74 \\8 & 88 \\9 & 83 \\10 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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