The Impact of a 100 Meter Asteroid Could Kill Many

question 8

Multiple Choice

The impact of a 100 meter asteroid could kill many people if it struck a major city. Suppose the probability of such an impact in any single year is 1 in 1,000, and suppose we know (somehow) that it has been 1200 years since the last impact. What would that tell us?

• A)Nothing, we would still presume that the chance of such an impact during the next year is 1 in 1000.
• B)The prediction must be wrong, since the time since the last impact has been 1200 years.
• C)We are overdue for such an impact, so we should expect to be hit by something even larger during the next few years.
• D)We are now due for such an impact, so the actual probability for the coming year must be much higher than 1 in 1000.

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Definitions:

Correlation

A numerical indicator that reveals the degree to which two factors vary in tandem, showcasing the intensity and orientation of their association.

Correlation Coefficient

A measure that indicates the extent to which two variables change together, but not necessarily at the same rate.

Test Statistic

A quantity derived from sample data that is used in a hypothesis test to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis.

T Test

A statistical test used to compare the means of two groups and determine if the differences between them are statistically significant.