The Quality Control Manager for NKA Inc

question 54

Short Answer

The quality control manager for NKA Inc. must decide whether to accept (alternative 1), further analyze (alternative 2), or reject (alternative 3) an incoming shipment (lot) of microchips. The historical data indicate that there is a 30 percent chance that the lot is poor quality (S₁), 50 percent chance that the lot is fair quality (S₂), and 20 percent chance that the lot is good quality (S₃). Assume the following payoff table is available. The values in the payoff table are in thousands of dollars.
Based on historical data, if the lot is poor quality, 40 percent of the items are defective. If the lot is fair quality, 22 percent of the items are defective. If the lot is good quality, 10 percent of the items are defective. The quality control manager inspects one unit from a recent shipment. After inspecting it, he determines that the unit is defective. Based on this additional information, determine the revised (posterior) probabilities for each of the three states of nature.

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Definitions:

Stages-Of-Change

A model in psychology that maps out the phases individuals undergo when changing behavior, including precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance.

Premature Termination

The ending of a therapeutic relationship or treatment process before the completion of the planned course of therapy, often resulting in unresolved issues for the client.

Clinical Symptoms

Observable signs and subjective experiences indicating the presence of a disease or psychological disorder.

Dualistically

Pertaining to a conceptual or philosophical division of something into two opposing or contrasting aspects or entities.