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question 36

Multiple Choice

Use the information for the question(s) below.
Kinston Industries has come up with a new mountain bike prototype and is ready to go ahead with pilot production and test marketing.The pilot production and test marketing phase will last for one year and cost $500,000.Your management team believes that there is a 50% chance that the test marketing will be successful and that there will be sufficient demand for the new mountain bike.If the test-marketing phase is successful,then Kinston Industries will invest $3 million in year one to build a plant that will generate expected annual after-tax cash flows of $400,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.If the test marketing is not successful,Kinston can still go ahead and build the new plant,but the expected annual after-tax cash flows would be only $200,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.Kinston has the option to stop the project at any time and sell the prototype mountain bike to an overseas competitor for $300,000.Kinston's cost of capital is 10%.
-Assuming that Kinston does not have the ability to sell the prototype in year one for $300,000,the NPV of the Kinston Industries Mountain Bike Project is closest to:

Understand the requirement for selecting a reference group when establishing probabilities.

Identify the conditions under which the method of equal alternatives applies.

Understand how to calculate probabilities using the count and divide technique.

Distinguish the operation of probability calculus suited for specific scenarios (conjunction, negation, disjunction).

Definitions:

Higher-Order Conditioning

A process in classical conditioning where a stimulus that was previously neutral becomes a conditioned stimulus by being paired with another conditioned stimulus.

Shaping

A method of teaching new behaviors by rewarding successive approximations toward a desired behavior.

FR Schedule

Fixed Ratio Schedule, a type of reinforcement schedule used in behavioral psychology where a response is reinforced only after a specified number of responses have occurred.

Reinforcement Given

The delivery of a stimulus following a behavior that increases the likelihood of that behavior being repeated.