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question 44

Essay

Use the information for the question(s)below.
Kinston Industries has come up with a new mountain bike prototype and is ready to go ahead with pilot production and test marketing.The pilot production and test marketing phase will last for one year and cost $500,000.Your management team believes that there is a 50% chance that the test marketing will be successful and that there will be sufficient demand for the new mountain bike.If the test-marketing phase is successful,then Kinston Industries will invest $3 million in year one to build a plant that will generate expected annual after-tax cash flows of $400,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.If the test marketing is not successful,Kinston can still go ahead and build the new plant,but the expected annual after-tax cash flows would be only $200,000 in perpetuity beginning in year two.Kinston has the option to stop the project at any time and sell the prototype mountain bike to an overseas competitor for $300,000.Kinston's cost of capital is 10%.
-Assume that Kinston has the ability to ignore the pilot production and test marketing and to go ahead and build their manufacturing plant immediately.Further assume that the probability of high or low demand is still 50%.Draw a decision tree that details Kinston Industries Mountain Bike project if Kinston goes ahead and builds the plant immediately.

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Definitions:

Eight Intelligences

Eight separate areas in which people put their perceptiveness and abilities to work.

Howard Gardner

An American developmental psychologist known for his theory of multiple intelligences, which proposes that intelligence is multidimensional.

Rational Mind

An awareness of reality, which allows you to ponder and reflect.

Emotional Mind

A state of mind characterized by emotion-driven thoughts and behaviors, as opposed to logic or reasoned thinking.