Ray Crofford Is Evaluating Investment Alternatives for the $100,000 Which $\quad$

question 24

Multiple Choice

Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1) expected profits (in $10,000's) for various market conditions and their probabilities, and (2) the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets. $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$$\text { Actual Market }$
$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text { Market Condition }$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text {Advisor's}$$\quad$$\text {Condition}$
$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Investment } & \text { Bull (0.8) } & \text { Bear (0.2) } & \text { EMV } \\\hline \text { Bonds } & 12 & -3 & 9 \\\hline \text { Stocks } & 25 & -30 & 14 \\\hline \end{array}&\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline\text { Prediction } & \text { Bull }\left(S_{1}\right) & \text { Bear }\left(S_{2}\right) \\\hline \text { Bull }\left(F_{1}\right) & 0.9 & 0.3 \\\hline \text { Bear }\left(F_{2}\right) & 0.1 & 0.7\\\hline \end{array}\end{array}$

The probability that the advisor predicts a Bull market, P (F₁) , is ________.

• A)0.78
• B)0.894
• C)0.953
• D)0.923
• E)1.000

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Definitions:

Inventory Purchases

The total cost incurred to buy goods intended for sale during a specific accounting period before any deductions or sales.

Actuarial Estimates

Actuarial estimates are calculations done by actuaries to predict future liabilities, expenses, and life expectancies, often for use in insurance and pension plans.

Other Comprehensive Income

Components of comprehensive income that are excluded from net income, including items such as unrealized gains or losses on foreign investments, pension plan adjustments.

IFRS

A collection of global accounting standards, International Financial Reporting Standards dictate the reporting methods for specific transactions and events in financial statements.