Ray Crofford Is Evaluating Investment Alternatives for the $100,000 Which $\quad$

question 3

Multiple Choice

Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1) expected profits (in $10,000's) for various market conditions and their probabilities, and (2) the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets. $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$$\text { Actual Market }$
$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text { Market Condition }$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text {Advisor's}$$\quad$$\text {Condition}$
$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Investment } & \text { Bull (0.8) } & \text { Bear (0.2) } & \text { EMV } \\\hline \text { Bonds } & 12 & -3 & 9 \\\hline \text { Stocks } & 25 & -30 & 14 \\\hline \end{array}&\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline\text { Prediction } & \text { Bull }\left(S_{1}\right) & \text { Bear }\left(S_{2}\right) \\\hline \text { Bull }\left(F_{1}\right) & 0.9 & 0.3 \\\hline \text { Bear }\left(F_{2}\right) & 0.1 & 0.7\\\hline \end{array}\end{array}$

If the advisor predicts a Bull market the revised probability of a Bull market, P (S₁|F₁) , is ________.

• A)0.877
• B)0.894
• C)0.953
• D)0.923
• E)1.000

---

Definitions:

Constituency Development

The process of building and maintaining relationships with stakeholders or groups that an organization or political entity depends on for support and advocacy.

Strategic Constituencies

Groups or stakeholders whose support is essential for an organization's survival and success, such as customers, employees, suppliers, and investors.

Value Creation

The process by which goods or services are provided that offer customers better value than those of competitors, either through lower price or by providing greater benefits and service that justifies higher prices.

Competitive Advantage

Achieving a superior position in the marketplace through distinctive products, services, or processes that competitors find difficult to replicate.