A Random Person Is Selected from a Large Population in Which

question 58

Multiple Choice

A random person is selected from a large population in which 5% are users of a dangerous illegal drug.A drug test that correctly identifies users 99% of the times and nonusers 95% of the time (this percentage is called "specificity" of the test) is administered to this individual and gives a positive result.What specificity would actually be required to conclude that the probability that this individual is actually a user of this drug is 0.75?

• A)0.965
• B)0.973
• C)0.978
• D)0.983
• E)0.985

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Definitions:

Decision Making

The cognitive process of selecting a course of action among various alternatives, often involving a balance of risk and reward.

Neoclassical Economics

The dominant and conventional branch of economic theory that attempts to predict human behavior by building economic models based on simplifying assumptions about people’s motives and capabilities. These include that people are fundamentally rational; motivated almost entirely by self-interest; good at math; and unaffected by heuristics, time inconsistency, and self-control problems.

Behavioral Economics

The branch of economic theory that combines insights from economics, psychology, and biology to make more accurate predictions about human behavior than conventional neoclassical economics, which is hampered by its core assumptions that people are fundamentally rational and almost entirely self-interested. Behavioral economics can explain framing effects, anchoring, mental accounting, the endowment effect, status quo bias, time inconsistency, and loss aversion.

Rational Decision Making

A systematic process of defining problems, evaluating alternatives, and choosing the most optimal solution based on logical and analytical reasoning.