A Time Series with Forecast Values Is Presented in the Following

question 10

Multiple Choice

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: $$\begin{array} { | r | r | r | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Actual } & \text { Forecast } \\\hline \text { Jan } & 1 & \\\hline \text { Mar } & 1.2 & * \\\hline \text { May } & 1.15 & * \\\hline \text { Jul } & 1.25 & * \\\hline \text { Sep } & 1.3 & * \\\hline \text { Nov } & 1.275 & x \\\hline\end{array}$$
If the mean square error (MSE) until September is 0.01125, and the overall MSE is 0.010125,
Then x = ______.

• A)1.15
• B)1.25
• C)1.3
• D)1.25 or 1.3
• E)1.2 or 1.35

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Definitions:

Standard Normal

A standard normal distribution characterized by a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

Distribution

The way in which something is shared out among a group or spread over an area, or in statistics, how values in a dataset are spread out.

Standard Deviation

A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values, indicating how much the members of a group differ from the mean value of the group.

Normal Distribution

A probability distribution that is symmetric around the mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean.