Suppose That an Actual (Not Perfectly Reliable)market Research Report Has

question 18

Essay

Suppose that an actual (not perfectly reliable)market research report has the following characteristics based on historical data: if the program is actually going to be a hit,there is a 90% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit,and if the program is actually going to be a flop,there is a 20% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.Given this information,what are the posterior probabilities that a show will be a hit or a flop,given the market research report?

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Definitions:

Collective Unconscious

A concept in analytical psychology proposed by Carl Jung, referring to a part of the unconscious mind that is shared among beings of the same species containing archetypes and universal experiences.

Controversial Aspect

An aspect that provokes disagreement or debate due to differing opinions.

Personal Unconscious

Carl Jung's term for the layer of unconscious that harbors lost memories, painful ideas that are repressed, and undeveloped ideas, particular to the individual.

Complex

In psychology, a complex is a core pattern of emotions, memories, perceptions, and wishes in the personal unconscious organized around a common theme, such as power or status.