Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 94

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 79.0 and an alpha of 0.2. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .70, .20, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 75 \\\hline 2 & 79 \\3 & 83 \\4 & 80 \\5 & 87 \\6 & 81 \\7 & 74 \\8 & 88 \\9 & 83 \\10 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Everyday Emotions

Common emotional responses experienced by individuals in response to daily events and interactions.

General Adaptation Syndrome

A three-stage response model describing the body's physiological reactions to stress: alarm, resistance, and exhaustion.

Alarm Phase

The initial reaction of the body to stress, activating the sympathetic nervous system and the fight or flight response.

Blood Pressure

The force exerted by circulating blood on the walls of blood vessels, often measured for health assessment.