Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 63

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .50, .30, and .20. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 45 \\2 & 48 \\3 & 42 \\4 & 48 \\5 & 49 \\6 & 54 \\7 & 47 \\8 & 50 \\9 & 46 \\10 & 47 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Sense Receptors

Specialized cells that convert physical energy in the environment or the body to electrical energy that can be transmitted as nerve impulses to the brain.

Stimulus Energy

The physical energy from the environment that impacts sensory organs, leading to perception.

Electromagnetic Energy

Refers to a form of energy that is reflected or emitted from objects in the form of electrical and magnetic waves that can travel through space.

Ultraviolet Light

A type of electromagnetic radiation with a wavelength shorter than that of visible light but longer than X-rays.