Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 63

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .50, .30, and .20. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 45 \\2 & 48 \\3 & 42 \\4 & 48 \\5 & 49 \\6 & 54 \\7 & 47 \\8 & 50 \\9 & 46 \\10 & 47 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Aristotle's Virtues

The principle of moral virtues proposed by Aristotle, suggesting a balanced and moderate behavior as the path to a virtuous and fulfilling life.

Community

A group of people living in the same place or having a particular characteristic in common, often marked by a sense of fellowship.

Flourishing

A state of growth, prosperity, or thriving, often used in the context of personal development, happiness, and achieving a high quality of life.

Nietzsche

A German philosopher, cultural critic, poet, and philologist known for his concepts of the "will to power," the Ubermensch, and the critique of morality and religion.