Cysts ​ After Researching Cysts of a Particular Type,a Doctor

question 160

Short Answer

Cysts
​ After researching cysts of a particular type,a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined,1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign.A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not).The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient. ​ ​
-{Cysts Narrative} In the absence of any test,what is the probability that the cyst is benign?

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Definitions:

Mass Conformity

The phenomenon where individuals in a society tend to adopt the group’s attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors to fit in and be accepted.

Beat Poet

A member of a group of American poets in the 1950s and 1960s who were characterized by their rejection of conventional society and the exploration of spirituality and sexuality.

Allen Ginsberg

An influential American poet and one of the leading figures of the Beat Generation, best known for his poem "Howl," which captured the spirit of his generation's disillusionment.

Soviet Union

A socialist state in Eurasia that existed from 1922 to 1991, composed of multiple Soviet republics, and was a major world power during its existence.