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A Company Is Planning a Plant Expansion \quad \quad

question 69

Essay

A company is planning a plant expansion. They can build a large or small plant. The payoffs for the plant depend on the level of consumer demand for the company's products. The company believes that there is a 72% chance that demand for their products will be high and a 28% chance that it will be low. The company can pay a market research firm to survey consumer attitudes towards the company's products. There is a 76% chance that the customers will like the products and a 24% chance that they won't. The payoff matrix and costs of the two plants are listed below. The company believes that if the survey is favorable there is an 87% chance that demand will be high for the products. If the survey is unfavorable there is only a 25% chance that the demand will be high. Draw the decision tree for the problem when the survey is performed before the plant size decision is made.
\quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad \quad  Demand \underline{\text { Demand }}
 Factory Size  High  Low  Plant Cost ($million)  Large 90405 Small 55201\begin{array}{lccc}\text { Factory Size } & \text { High } & \text { Low } & \text { Plant Cost (\$million) } \\\hline \text { Large } & 90 & 40 & 5 \\\text { Small } & 55 & 20 & 1\end{array}

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Definitions:

Critical

Involving the objective analysis and evaluation of an issue in order to form a judgment.

Greek Word

A term or expression originating from the Greek language, which has contributed significantly to various fields of study and modern vocabulary.

False Dilemma

Responses to complex issues are reduced to an either/or choice.

Fifteenth Amendment

An amendment to the United States Constitution that prohibits the federal and state governments from denying a citizen the right to vote based on that citizen's "race, color, or previous condition of servitude."

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