Refer to the Following:
a Consulting Firm Estimates the Following $Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$

question 52

Multiple Choice

Refer to the following:
A consulting firm estimates the following quarterly sales forecasting model:
$Q _ { t } = a + b t + c D$
The equation is estimated using quarterly data from 2003I-2013III (t = 1,..., 43) . The variable D is a dummy variable for the second quarter where:
D = 1 in the second quarter, and 0 otherwise.
The results of the estimation are:
$\begin{array}{rllll}\text { DEPENDENT VARIABLE: } & \text { QT } & \text { R-SQUARE } & \text { F-RATIO } & \text { P-VALUE ONF } \\\text { OBSERVATIONS: } & 43 & 0.8644 & 127.5 & 0.0001\\\\\text { VARIABLE } & \text { PARAMETER } & \text { STANDARD } & \\&\text { ESTIMATE } & \text { ERROR } & \text { T-RATIO } & \text { P-VALUE } \\\text { INTERCEPT } & 22.5 & 9.32 & 2.41 & 0.0201 \\\text { T } & 1.86 & 0.55 & 3.38 & 0.0016 \\\text { D } & 2.0 & 0.71 & 2.82 & 0.0075\end{array}$
-What is the estimated intercept of the trend line in the second quarter?

• A) 22.50
• B) 24.50
• C) 24.36
• D) 2.00
• E) none of the above

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Definitions:

Money Supply

The total financial resources in an economy at a particular time, made up of cash, coins, and the holdings in checking and savings accounts.

Inflation

An increase in the average cost of goods and services, resulting in a drop in the value of purchasing power.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate represents the proportion of the workforce that is without a job and is actively looking for work.

Monetary Neutrality

The theory that changes in the money supply only affect nominal variables (like prices) and not real variables (like output) in the long run.