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TABLE 16-5 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the to Forecast

question 61

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-5
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 1996 to 1998. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Y^{^}= 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where
Y^{^}is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1996.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-5, in testing the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (- 0.083) , the results were a t-statistic of - 0.66 and an associated p-value of 0.530. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Definitions:

Over-The-Counter Market

A decentralized market where securities not listed on major stock exchanges are traded directly between parties.

Dealers

Individuals or firms in the financial markets that act as principals in trading, buying, and selling securities for their own account.

Third Market

Trading venue for exchange-listed stocks that occurs off the official exchange, often involving large institutional investors through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions.

Fourth Market

Trading of securities directly between investors, bypassing traditional brokerage and exchange platforms.