TABLE 16-13 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 115

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-13
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 1998 to 2002. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀Y^{^} = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^{^} is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1998.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-13, in testing the significance of the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (- 0.129) which has a p-value of 0.492. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different than the revenues in the fourth quarter (? = 0.05).
• B) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different than the revenues in the fourth quarter (? = 0.05).
• C) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different than the revenues in an average quarter (? = 0.05).
• D) The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different than the revenues in an average quarter (? = 0.05).

---

Definitions:

Increasing Challenges

The process of progressively raising the level of difficulty or demand in tasks or situations to drive performance or development.

Special Projects

Special projects refer to unique, temporary initiatives within an organization designed to achieve specific goals or resolve particular issues, often requiring dedicated resources and cross-functional collaboration.

Work Design Characteristics

Features of a job that influence its execution and how it is perceived by the employee, including task variety, autonomy, and feedback.

Job Characteristics Model

A theory that suggests jobs should be designed to have five key characteristics (skill variety, task identity, task significance, autonomy, and feedback) to increase employee motivation.