TABLE 16-13 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 8

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-13
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 1998 to 2002. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀Y^{^} = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^{^} is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1998.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-13, in testing the significance of the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.012) which has a p-value of 0.0000. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is significantly different from 1.2% (? = 0.05).
• B) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is significantly different from 0% (? = 0.05).
• C) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is not significantly different from 1.2% (? = 0.05).
• D) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is not significantly different from 0% (? = 0.05).

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Definitions:

Calls Received

The total number of incoming calls handled by a system, service center, or individual within a specific timeframe.

Lightning Strikes

Electrical discharges caused by imbalances between storm clouds and the ground, or within the clouds themselves.

Poisson Distribution

A probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, assuming that these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event.

Probability

The measure of the likelihood that an event will occur, quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.