TABLE 16-4
Given Below Are EXCEL Outputs for Various Estimated $\text { AR (1) Model: }$

question 59

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-4
Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for Coca-Cola's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1975 to 1998. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 1996, 1997, and 1998 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and 11.5537, respectively.
$\text { AR (1) Model: }$
$\begin{array}{lcccc}\hline & \text { Coeficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.1802077 & 0.39797154 & 0.452815546 & 0.655325119 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.011222533 & 0.049685158 & 20.35260757 & 2.64373 \mathrm{E}-15\end{array}$


$\text { AR (2) Model: }$
$\begin{array}{lcccc}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.30047473 & 0.4407641 & 0.681713257 & 0.503646149 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.17322186 & 0.234737881 & 4.998008229 & 7.98541 \mathrm{E}-05 \\\text { XLag2 } & 0.183028189 & 0.250716669 & -0.730020026 & 0.474283347\end{array}$


$\text { AR (3) Model: }$
$\begin{array}{lrccc}\hline & \text { Coeficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Interept } & 0.313043288 & 0.514437257 & 0.608515972 & 0.550890271 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.173719587 & 0.246490594 & 4.761721601 & 0.000180926 \\\text { XLag2 } & -0.069378567 & 0.373086508 & -0.185958391 & 0.854678245 \\\text { XLag3 } & -0.122123515 & 0.282031297 & -0.433014053 & 0.670448392\end{array}$



-Referring to Table 16-4, if one decides to use AR(3) , what will the predicted real operating revenue for Coca-Cola be in 2001?

• A) $11.84 billion
• B) $12.47 billion
• C) $11.68 billion
• D) $11.59 billion

---

Definitions:

Pain Receptors

Specialized nerve cells that detect and transmit messages about stimuli that may be damaging or injurious to the body, leading to the sensation of pain.

Neural Impulses

Electrical impulses moving through neurons, enabling interaction throughout the nervous system.

Transduction

The process by which sensory information is converted into a form that can be processed by the brain.

Subliminal Priming

A psychological phenomenon where stimuli presented below the threshold of conscious awareness influence thoughts, feelings, or actions.