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TABLE 16-12
the Manager of a Health Club Has Recorded

question 110

Short Answer

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to
obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model
Regression Statistics
 Multiple R 0.993 R Square 0.987 Adjusted R Square 0.985 Standard Error 9.276 Observations 15\begin{array} { l r } \text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.276 \\ \text { Observations } & 15 \end{array}


 Coefficients  Intercept 5.86 XVariable 1 0.37X Variable 2 0.85\begin{array}{ll}&\text { Coefficients }\\\text { Intercept } & 5.86 \\\text { XVariable 1 } & 0.37 \\X \text { Variable 2 } & 0.85\end{array} SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1st  Order\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT - \(1 ^ { \text {st } }\) Order}
Model Regression Statistic s\text {Model Regression Statistic s}

 Multiple R 0.993 R Square 0.987 Adjusted R Square 0.985 Standard Error 9.150 Observations 15CoefficientsIntercept 5.66XVariable 1.10\begin{array} { l r } \text { Multiple R } & 0.993 \\ \text { R Square } & 0.987 \\ \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.985 \\ \text { Standard Error } & 9.150 \\ \text { Observations } & 15\\\\&\text {Coefficients}\\\text {Intercept }& 5.66\\\text {XVariable }&1.10 \end{array}

-Referring to Table 16-12, using the first-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 17 is ______.

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Definitions:

Deficiency

The lack or insufficiency of something necessary, often used in the context of nutritional, mental, or emotional needs.

Neurogenesis

The process by which new neurons are formed in the brain, contributing to brain plasticity and possibly to aspects of learning and memory.

Human Brain

The central organ of the human nervous system, responsible for processing sensory information, regulating bodily functions, and enabling consciousness, thoughts, and emotions.

Adulthood

A stage of life characterized by the attainment of legal age and the ability to manage personal and financial responsibilities independently.

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