TABLE 16-13 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 128

Short Answer

TABLE 16-13
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 1998 to 2002. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀Y^{^} = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^{^} is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1998.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-13, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the third quarter of 2003?

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Definitions:

Gap Junctions

Specialized intercellular connections between a multitude of animal cell-types that permit the direct transfer of ions, molecules, and electrical impulses through regulated pores.

Plasmodesmata

Cytoplasmic channels in plant cell walls that allow for transportation and communication between cells.

Tight Junctions

Specialized connections between adjacent cells in animal tissues that prevent the passage of materials between the cells.

Plasma Membrane

The lipid bilayer boundary encasing the cytoplasm of a cell, controlling the passage of substances in and out of the cell.