(A) Construct a Decision Tree to Help the Landowner Make

question 85

Essay

(A) Construct a decision tree to help the landowner make her decision. Make sure to label all decision and chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities.
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(B) What should the landowner do? Why?
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(C) Suppose the landowner is uncertain about the reliability of her geologist friend's estimate of the probability that oil will be found on her land. If she thinks the probability could be anywhere between 40% and 80%, would that change her decision?
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(D) Suppose that, in addition to the uncertainty about the probability of finding oil, the landowner is also uncertain about the cost of the exploratory well (could vary +/- 25%) and the future profits (could vary +/- 50%). To which of these variables is the expected value most sensitive?
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(E) What does the risk profile show about the relative risk levels for the landowner's two options?
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(F) Suppose the landowner suspects that she may be a somewhat risk-averse decision maker, because the she doesn't feel there is as much of a difference between the two options as their expected values would indicate. She consults with a decision analysis expert who asks her to decide between two hypothetical alternatives: 1) a gamble with equal probabilities of winning an amount $X and losing an amount -$X/2, and 2) doing nothing, with a payoff of $0. The point at which she cannot decide between 1) and 2) is when X=$1,500,000. What is her risk tolerance if she uses an exponential utility function to model her preferences?
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(G) Apply the risk tolerance given in your answer to the previous question to the landowner's decision tree in (A). What is the optimal decision in this case? What is the resulting certainty equivalent?
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(H) If the landowner could hire an expert geologist prepare a report to help her make her decision, what is the most that information could be worth? Assume the geologist's information is perfectly reliable.

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Definitions:

Sucrose

A sweet substance made from glucose and fructose, familiarly referred to as the sugar found in sugar bowls.

Monosaccharides

Simple sugars that are the most basic units of carbohydrates, with a single polyhydroxy aldehyde or ketone unit.

Kiliani-Fischer Chain Lengthening

A chemical reaction that increases the carbon chain length of aldoses by one carbon atom using cyanohydrin formation.

Optical Activity

The ability of a compound to rotate the plane of polarized light, indicating its chiral nature.