(A) Construct a Decision Tree to Help the Landowner Make

question 85

Essay

(A) Construct a decision tree to help the landowner make her decision. Make sure to label all decision and chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities.
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(B) What should the landowner do? Why?
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(C) Suppose the landowner is uncertain about the reliability of her geologist friend's estimate of the probability that oil will be found on her land. If she thinks the probability could be anywhere between 40% and 80%, would that change her decision?
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(D) Suppose that, in addition to the uncertainty about the probability of finding oil, the landowner is also uncertain about the cost of the exploratory well (could vary +/- 25%) and the future profits (could vary +/- 50%). To which of these variables is the expected value most sensitive?
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(E) What does the risk profile show about the relative risk levels for the landowner's two options?
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(F) Suppose the landowner suspects that she may be a somewhat risk-averse decision maker, because the she doesn't feel there is as much of a difference between the two options as their expected values would indicate. She consults with a decision analysis expert who asks her to decide between two hypothetical alternatives: 1) a gamble with equal probabilities of winning an amount $X and losing an amount -$X/2, and 2) doing nothing, with a payoff of $0. The point at which she cannot decide between 1) and 2) is when X=$1,500,000. What is her risk tolerance if she uses an exponential utility function to model her preferences?
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(G) Apply the risk tolerance given in your answer to the previous question to the landowner's decision tree in (A). What is the optimal decision in this case? What is the resulting certainty equivalent?
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(H) If the landowner could hire an expert geologist prepare a report to help her make her decision, what is the most that information could be worth? Assume the geologist's information is perfectly reliable.

Differentiate between primary and secondary reinforcers in the context of reinforcement theory.

Comprehend the relationship between reinforcement and rewards in motivating employees.

Understand the differences between classical conditioning, operant conditioning, and social learning theory in acquiring new behaviors.

Differentiate between negative reinforcement, punishment, and positive reinforcement and their outcomes.

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Definitions:

Pressure Points

Specific areas on the body considered sensitive and can be used to alleviate pain or apply therapeutic pressure.

Assessment Priority

The determination of the most important aspects to evaluate in a given situation, particularly in healthcare settings.

Non-Blanchable Reddened Area

A skin condition observed in the early stages of pressure ulcer formation, where redness does not turn white (blanch) when pressed.

Nursing Diagnosis

A medical decision regarding the experiences or reactions of an individual, family, or community to real or possible health issues or life events.