The Data Shown Below Contains the Monthly Sales (In Thousands

question 5

Essay

The data shown below contains the monthly sales (in thousands of dollars) at a local department store for each of the past 24 months.
-(A) Develop a time series plot of the data.
(B) Perform a runs test and compute a few autocorrelations to determine whether this time series is random.
(C) Given your answers to (A) and (B), what type of forecast do you recommend? Explain your answer.
(D) Use your answer to (C), to obtain a forecast for the next quarter (4 months). How reliable do you think this forecast is?

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Definitions:

Reason Well

The ability to think, understand, and form judgments by a process of logic.

The Big Bang

The prevailing cosmological model explaining the early development of the Universe, starting from a singularity and expanding over time.

Unmoved Mover

A philosophical concept introduced by Aristotle, referring to a primary cause or "first mover" that initiates motion or change without itself being moved or changed.

Cosmological Argument

A philosophical argument for the existence of God which posits that everything that exists has a cause, leading to the necessity of a first cause, identified as God.