Use Bayes' Rule to Find the Indicated Probability

question 30

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability.
-The incidence of a certain disease on the island of Tukow is 4%.A new test has been developed to diagnose the disease.Using this test,91% of those who have the disease test positive while 4% of those who do not have the disease test positive (false positive) .If a person tests positive,what is the probability that he or she actually has the disease?

• A)0.438
• B)0.91
• C)0.487
• D)0.856

---

Definitions:

Open Messages

Communications that are straightforward and transparent, often encouraging dialogue and feedback.

Apology

An expression of regret or sorrow for having done something wrong or caused inconvenience.

Negative Message

Communication that conveys bad news, rejection, or feedback that may not be favorable to the recipient.

Social Media

Digital platforms that facilitate the creation and sharing of information, ideas, career interests, and other forms of expression via virtual communities.