Use Bayes' Rule to Find the Indicated Probability

question 30

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability.
-The incidence of a certain disease on the island of Tukow is 4%.A new test has been developed to diagnose the disease.Using this test,91% of those who have the disease test positive while 4% of those who do not have the disease test positive (false positive) .If a person tests positive,what is the probability that he or she actually has the disease?

• A)0.438
• B)0.91
• C)0.487
• D)0.856

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