Use Bayes' Rule to Find the Indicated Probability

question 60

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability.
-Quality Motors has three plants.Plant 1 produces 35% of the car output,plant 2 produces 20% and plant 3 produces the remaining 45%.One percent of the output of plant 1 is defective,1.8% of the output of plant 2 is defective and 2% of the output of plant 3 is defective.The annual total production of Quality Motors is 1,000,000 cars.A car chosen at random from the annual output and is found defection.What is the probability that it came from plant 2?

• A)0.217
• B)0.35
• C)0.559
• D)0.224

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Definitions:

Charles Darwin

A 19th-century naturalist best known for his contributions to the evolutionary theory, proposing that species evolve over time through natural selection.

Partial Reinforcement

A conditioning schedule in which only some responses are reinforced, often leading to more resistant behavioral patterns.

Respondent Behavior

A reaction to a stimulus in the environment that is learned through classical conditioning.

Operant Behavior

Behavior that is influenced by the consequences that follow it, with rewards typically increasing and punishments decreasing the likelihood of the behavior's recurrence.