Use Bayes' Rule to Find the Indicated Probability

question 60

Multiple Choice

Use Bayes' rule to find the indicated probability.
-Quality Motors has three plants.Plant 1 produces 35% of the car output,plant 2 produces 20% and plant 3 produces the remaining 45%.One percent of the output of plant 1 is defective,1.8% of the output of plant 2 is defective and 2% of the output of plant 3 is defective.The annual total production of Quality Motors is 1,000,000 cars.A car chosen at random from the annual output and is found defection.What is the probability that it came from plant 2?

• A)0.217
• B)0.35
• C)0.559
• D)0.224

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Definitions:

Conservation

The principle that certain physical characteristics (such as volume, mass, or number) remain unchanged, even when their appearance changes, as understood in cognitive development.

Object Permanence

Object permanence is the understanding that objects continue to exist even when they cannot be seen, heard, or otherwise sensed, a key cognitive development in infancy.

Principle

A fundamental truth, law, doctrine, or motivating force, upon which others are based or from which others are derived.

Principle of Conservation

A concept in cognitive development theory that an object's volume, mass, or quantity remains the same despite changes in its shape or form, usually understood by children during the concrete operational stage.