The Time-Series Multiplicative Model Is Used for Forecasting, Where $T _ { t } , C _ { t } , S _ { t }$

question 55

Multiple Choice

The time-series multiplicative model is used for forecasting, where $T _ { t } , C _ { t } , S _ { t }$ and $R _ { t }$ are respectively the trend, cyclical, seasonal and random variation components of the time series, and $y_ { t }$ is the value of the time series at time t. The following estimates are obtained: $\hat { T _ { t } }$ = 125, $\hat { C } _ { t }$ = 1.03, $\hat { S } _ { t }$ = 1.02, $\hat { R } _ { t }$ = 0.97. The model will produce a forecast of:

• A) 122.659.
• B) 131.325.
• C) 118.980.
• D) 127.385.

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Definitions:

Sensitization

Sensitization is an increase in the behavioral response following repeated exposure to a stimulus, making an organism more sensitive to that stimulus over time.

Behavioral Contrast

occurs when a change in the condition of reinforcement in one context leads to a change in behavior in another context.

Higher-order Conditioning

A form of conditioning in which a stimulus that has become a conditioned stimulus is paired with a new neutral stimulus, creating a second conditioned stimulus.

Opponent Process

A theory suggesting that emotions are regulated by mechanisms that operate in opposing pairs, allowing for emotional adaptation over time.