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A Construction Company Must Decide on the Size of the Shopping

question 46

Essay

A construction company must decide on the size of the shopping mall, i.e. Large, Medium or Small, that has to be constructed in their acquired plot in the sub-urban area of Seattle. Due to the market conditions, the number of visitors to the mall will be High, Moderate, or Low. The level of response and the size of the mall will decide the return of investment from the mall. The profit payoff table for management (in millions of dollars) after 5 years is provided below.

nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Number of Visitors  Size of the Mall  High  Moderate  L ow  Large 251520 Medium 201210 Small 15135\begin{array}{l}                                    \text { Number of Visitors }\\\begin{array} { l c c c } \hline \text { Size of the Mall } & \text { High } & \text { Moderate } & \text { L ow } \\\hline \text { Large } & 25 & 15 & - 20 \\\text { Medium } & 20 & 12 & - 10 \\\text { Small } & 15 & 13 & 5\end{array}\end{array}

The probabilities are P(High) = 0.35, P(Moderate) = 0.40, and P(Low) = 0.25.
a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.
b. Use EVPI to determine whether the construction company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of the response.

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Definitions:

Longitudinal Research

A research method that studies the same subjects over a period of time, observing changes or developments.

Historical Influence

The impact that past events, figures, or movements have on current beliefs, practices, or knowledge.

Cultural Experiences

Events, practices, or activities that individuals engage in, which are influenced by or reflective of their cultural backgrounds.

Cross-Sectional Research

Cross-sectional research is a type of study that examines data from a population, or a representative subset, at one specific point in time.

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