The Manager of a Company Decides to Arrange a Party

question 14

Essay

The manager of a company decides to arrange a party for being promoted and has invited 50 guests for dinner. The following table contains information on the number of RSVP'ed guests. He assumes that 12 people will not turn up. He also estimates that 13 guests planning to come solo has a 65 percent chance of attending alone, a 30 percent chance of not attending, and a 5 percent chance of bringing a companion. For each of the 20 guests who plan to bring a companion, there is a 75 percent chance that she or he will attend with a companion, a 10 percent chance of attending solo, and a 15 percent chance of not attending at all. For the 5 people who have not responded, the wedding planner assumes that there is an 85 percent chance that each will not attend, a 10 percent chance they will attend alone, and a 5 percent chance they will attend with a companion.
​ $$\begin{array} { c | c } \hline \text { Guests } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Number of } \\\text { Invitations }\end{array} \\\hline 0 & 12 \\1 & 13 \\2 & 20 \\\text { No response } & 5\end{array}$$ ​
a. Assist the manager by constructing a spreadsheet simulation model to determine the expected number of guests who will attend the party.
b. Use the Monte Carlo simulation model to determine X, the minimum number of guests for whom the dinner needs to be ordered, so that there is at least a 95 percent chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal to X. What is the best estimate for the value of X?