Consider the Following Time Series Data Using the Naïve Method (Most Recent Value) as the Forecast

question 22

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 456 \\\hline 8 & 412 \\\hline 9 & 525 \\\hline 10 & 436 \\\hline\end{array}$$ Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next year, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error
b. Mean squared error
c. Mean absolute percentage error
d. What is the forecast for year 11?

---

Definitions:

Anal Retentive

Pertains to a personality trait characterized by orderliness, meticulousness, and a controlling attitude, believed by Freud to originate during the anal stage of psychosexual development.

Personality

The characteristic set of behaviors, cognitions, and emotional patterns that evolve from biological and environmental factors.

Sensual Pleasure

Refers to the gratification derived from satisfying one's senses, often relating to touch, taste, smell, sight, and sound.

Dominant Source

This term refers to the primary or most influential factor in a given context, often used in the fields of communication, psychology, and environmental studies.