Consider the Following Time Series Data Using the Average of All the Historical Data as a |

question 17

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 456 \\\hline 8 & 412 \\\hline 9 & 525 \\\hline 10 & 436 \\\hline\end{array}$$ Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next year, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error
b. Mean squared error
c. Mean absolute percentage error
d. What is the forecast for year 11?

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Definitions:

Uncertain Future Event

An uncertain future event is an event or occurrence that may or may not happen, impacting plans, decisions, and outcomes depending on its eventual realization or lack thereof.

Quasi-contract

A legal concept where a court enforces an obligation on parties as if a contract existed, to prevent unjust enrichment.

Materially Breached

A significant failure to meet one's contractual obligations, which permits the other party to the contract to either enforce the contract or be released from it.

Reasonable Value

Reasonable value refers to a fair or sensible amount or worth of goods, services, or property, often determined in a legal context.