Consider the Following Time Series Data A Use α = 0

question 2

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 302 \\\hline 8 & 267 \\\hline 9 & 225 \\\hline 10 & 336 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.
b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α (rounded to 2 decimal places) that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
c. Compute the forecast for year 11 using the smoothing coefficient α selected using trial error.

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Definitions:

Random Assignment

A method used in experiments where participants are allocated to various groups in a way that ensures each has an equal chance of being chosen, to ensure fairness and objectivity in the results.

Experimental Conditions

The controlled environments and variables manipulated by researchers to investigate causal relationships in a study.

Experimental Control

Refers to the practice of eliminating or constant management of variables in an experiment except for the independent variable being studied.

Ethical Requirement

A guideline or rule designed to ensure behavior and practices meet moral standards and are conducted with integrity.