Consider the Following Time Series Data A Use α = 0

question 2

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 302 \\\hline 8 & 267 \\\hline 9 & 225 \\\hline 10 & 336 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.
b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α (rounded to 2 decimal places) that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
c. Compute the forecast for year 11 using the smoothing coefficient α selected using trial error.

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Definitions:

Variable Overhead Efficiency Variance

The difference between actual and budgeted variable overhead costs, attributable to differences in productive efficiency.

Favorable

A term used in finance and accounting to describe a situation or variance that is better than expected or budgeted, often indicating profits or gains.

Labor Efficiency Variance

The difference between the actual labor hours used to produce a good or service and the standard labor hours expected to be used, measuring labor efficiency.

Variable Overhead Rate Variance

The difference between the actual variable overhead incurred and the expected (or standard) variable overhead based on activity levels.