The Following Time Series Shows the Sales of a Particular

question 46

Essay

The following time series shows the sales of a particular commodity over the past 15 weeks. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Week } & \text { Sales } \\\hline 1 & 1,123 \\\hline 2 & 1,157 \\\hline 3 & 1,138 \\\hline 4 & 1,120 \\\hline 5 & 1,130 \\\hline 6 & 1,132 \\\hline 7 & 1,188 \\\hline 8 & 1,151 \\\hline 9 & 1,129 \\\hline 10 & 1,118 \\\hline 11 & 1,125 \\\hline 12 & 1,147 \\\hline 13 & 1,162 \\\hline 14 & 1,190 \\\hline 15 & 1,137 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Use α = 0.3 to develop the exponential smoothing values for the time series and compute the forecast of demand for the next week.
c. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a relatively small MSE.

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Definitions:

Grievance Procedure

A formal process by which employees can submit complaints or concerns about work-related issues for resolution.

Progressive Discipline

A process where the severity of punishment for an employee's misconduct or poor performance increases with the recurrence of the behavior.

Precedes Termination

Refers to events or actions that happen before an employee is formally dismissed from their job.

Investigative Interview

A methodical conversation conducted to gather information or evidence, often used in the context of law enforcement, journalism, or workplace investigations.