The Following Data Shows the Quarterly Profit (In Thousands of Dollars)

question 26

Essay

The following data shows the quarterly profit (in thousands of dollars) made by a particular company in the past 3 years. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Quarter } & \text { Profit (\$1000s) } \\\hline 1 & 1 & 45 \\\hline 1 & 2 & 51 \\\hline 1 & 3 & 72 \\\hline 1 & 4 & 50 \\\hline 2 & 1 & 49 \\\hline 2 & 2 & 45 \\\hline 2 & 3 & 79 \\\hline 2 & 4 & 54 \\\hline 3 & 1 & 42 \\\hline 3 & 2 & 58 \\\hline 3 & 3 & 70 \\\hline 3 & 4 & 56 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and the forecast of profit (in $1000s) for the next quarter.
b. Compare the three-period moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

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Definitions:

Descriptive Term

A phrase or word used to describe the characteristics or qualities of something.

Diene

Organic compounds containing two double bonds, often involved in polymerization reactions.

Hydrogenation

The chemical reaction that adds hydrogen (H2) across unsaturated bonds in molecules, such as converting alkenes to alkanes.

ΔH°

The standard enthalpy change of a reaction, measured under standard conditions (1 atm, 298.15K), representing the difference in enthalpy between products and reactants.