Consider the Following Time Series Data Using the Average of All the Historical Data as a |

question 17

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 456 \\\hline 8 & 412 \\\hline 9 & 525 \\\hline 10 & 436 \\\hline\end{array}$$ Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next year, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error
b. Mean squared error
c. Mean absolute percentage error
d. What is the forecast for year 11?

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Definitions:

Self-disclosure

The act of revealing personal, private, or sensitive information about oneself to others, an integral part of developing intimacy in relationships.

Self-knowledge

The understanding and awareness one has of their own character, feelings, motives, and desires.

Self-awareness

The conscious knowledge of one's own character, feelings, motives, and desires.

Self-worth

A measure of how much a person values themselves, often impacting their confidence and emotional well-being.