Consider the Following Time Series Data A Use α = 0

question 2

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 302 \\\hline 8 & 267 \\\hline 9 & 225 \\\hline 10 & 336 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.
b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α (rounded to 2 decimal places) that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
c. Compute the forecast for year 11 using the smoothing coefficient α selected using trial error.

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Definitions:

Kant

Immanuel Kant was an 18th-century German philosopher whose work in epistemology, ethics, and aesthetics had a profound influence on modern Western philosophy, especially through his doctrine of transcendental idealism.

Practical Reason

The application of our rationality to practical problems—particularly moral problems—the solution to which consists in action (as opposed to a statement or a theory).

Postulate

A fundamental principle or assumption that is accepted without proof, often serving as a basis for developing further theories or arguments.

Aristotle

An ancient Greek philosopher and polymath whose extensive works on various subjects laid foundational principles in Western philosophy and science.