Consider the Following Time Series Data A Use α = 0

question 2

Essay

Consider the following time series data. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Value } \\\hline 1 & 234 \\\hline 2 & 287 \\\hline 3 & 255 \\\hline 4 & 310 \\\hline 5 & 298 \\\hline 6 & 250 \\\hline 7 & 302 \\\hline 8 & 267 \\\hline 9 & 225 \\\hline 10 & 336 \\\hline\end{array}$$
a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.
b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α (rounded to 2 decimal places) that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
c. Compute the forecast for year 11 using the smoothing coefficient α selected using trial error.

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Definitions:

Principle Homeostasis

The regulatory principle that organisms maintain a stable internal environment despite external changes.

Hierarchy Needs

A theory in psychology, proposed by Abraham Maslow, suggesting that people are motivated by five basic categories of needs: physiological, safety, love/belonging, esteem, and self-actualization, which form a hierarchy.

Self-actualization

The realisation or fulfilment of one's talents and potentialities, considered as a drive or need present in everyone.

Maslow's Hierarchy

A theory of psychological health predicated on fulfilling innate human needs in a priority, culminating in self-actualization.