SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 143

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,the best interpretation of the coefficient of X (0.012) in the regression equation is:

• A)the quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• B)the annual growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• C)the quarterly growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.
• D)the annual growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.

---

Definitions:

Cash Cycle

The period between the outlay of cash for the purchase of inventory and the receipt of cash from accounts receivable, representing the time it takes for a company to turn its investments in inventory back into cash.

Receivables Factoring

The process of selling a business's accounts receivable to a third party at a discount to quickly generate cash.

Bad Debts

Financial amounts owed to a company that are unlikely to be paid by debtors, often recognized as an expense on the company's income statement.

Discounted Amount

The present value of a future sum of money or stream of cash flows given a specific rate, reflecting the time value of money.