SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 139

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,to obtain the fitted value for the first quarter of 2013 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 16,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• B)X = 16,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 1,Q₃ = 0
• C)X = 17,Q₁ = 1,Q₂ = 0,Q₃ = 0
• D)X = 17,Q₁ = 0,Q₂ = 1,Q₃ = 0

---

Definitions:

Identity Diffusion

A state in Erikson's theory of identity development where an individual has not yet experienced a crisis or made any commitments, leading to uncertainty about one's identity.

Socioemotional Selectivity Theory

A theory suggesting that as people age, they shift their social goals towards more emotionally meaningful experiences and relationships.

Aversive Cognitive Distortions

Negative thought patterns that can contribute to emotional distress, viewing situations in a more harmful light than they actually are.

Reflective Ruminations

Deep or considered thought about one's feelings and actions, often with a focus on improvements or understanding.